Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.
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Report Summary – Nov. 26, 2024
Highlights
- Consumer sentiment has reached a 3.5-year high, driven by post-election optimism.
- Retail vehicle sales have shown significant strength, with both new and used sales up 11% compared to 2023.
- Auto loan rates are declining, with the average used rate at 13.76% and new rate at 9.12%.
Consumer Sentiment Reaches New Heights
- Consumer sentiment has seen a notable increase, reaching a 3.5-year high post-election.
- The Index of Consumer Sentiment increased by 1.4% in October and is up 4.6% so far in November.
- This boost in sentiment is attributed to stronger economic conditions and positive post-election outlooks.
Retail Vehicle Sales Show Strength
- Retail vehicle sales for both new and used cars have risen significantly over the last month.
- Sales trends for new and used vehicles are up 11% against 2023.
- This increase is driven by improved consumer confidence and favorable market conditions.
Declining Auto Loan Rates
- Auto loan rates have been on a downward trend in November, making financing more accessible.
- The average auto loan rate for used vehicles is now at 13.76%, while new vehicle rates are at 9.12%.
- Low-interest financing deals have increased as lenders become more aggressive.
Mixed Supply Situation for New and Used Vehicles
- The supply of new and used vehicles remains mixed, with new supply staying higher but flattening last week.
- Used vehicle supply continues to decline and remains tighter overall.
- The average retail price for MY 2021 vehicles declined by 0.1% in the most recent week, with wholesale prices down 0.5%.
Leading Indicators
Leads and service trends are showing positive trends.
- Leads: Leads are down year over year in November on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, and leads are up for the month compared to October on Kelley Blue Book.
- Dealer Metrics: •Unique leads per dealer for new vehicles are up year over year in November on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and new leads are up for the month compared to October. Used leads remain down year over year. Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 17% year over year* last week with the trend in applications per dealer improving week over week.
- Service Trends: •Service trends on Xtime relative to last year improved last week, as completed appointments were up 25% year over year.*
*Note that year-over-year comparisons for last week are boosted by Thanksgiving falling one week later this year.
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